pebblewriter

Tag: Powell

  • FOMC Day: Mar 20, 2024

    Markets are at all-time highs as we await the FOMC’s latest decision on interest rates.

    Note that we’re going on 21 months of a yield curve inversion, the longest since August 1978 to May 1980. Interestingly, the market was flirting with new, all-time highs back then as well.

    Also interesting, that was one of many inversions that was followed by a recession. In fact, every inversion was followed by a recession.

    Is there any reason to expect that this time will be different?

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  • FOMC Decision: Nov 1, 2023

    Futures have bounced back from moderate overnight losses in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

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  • Powell Speaks

    Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2023

    Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 22, 2023

    Futures are up 0.40% largely on bullish algo positioning……with VIX now down 13.4% since Friday’s 200-day moving average tag.

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  • Powell Doesn’t Disappoint

    He could have gone full hawk, but he didn’t. Even in the face of economic data (that the rest of us can now see) which was uniformly positive and a coming bump in inflation, Powell chose the route that best supported stocks. ES bounced at its SMA10 and is surging toward its .886 Fib retracement.

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  • Stocks vs Bonds

    The OPEX meltup continued overnight, with futures up modestly to new 9-month highs.

    Powell speaks at 11am ET and might shed some light on the implications of treasury yields which have pushed to new cycle highs – reflecting a much more cautious assessment of the debt ceiling negotiations.

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  • FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022

    They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one.

    Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat.

    After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the hoopla complicated the Fed’s task by aptly demonstrating the persistent froth in the markets.

    I believe this practically guarantees that Powell will pull another Jackson Hole and scold investors for their irrational exuberance. Whether it will be enough to counteract the OPEX effect is anyone’s guess.

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  • Powell on Deck

    Powell’s speech will take on added importance following the release of this morning’s hotter than expected Q3 GDP print on the heels of a big ADP miss.

    Futures are flat after completing the backtest of the trend line from October we had been expecting.

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  • The Next Tests

    Futures are flat following yesterday’s sharp selloff credited to the economic slowdown in China and hawkish Fedspeak. SPX closed below its 10-day moving average for the first time in 3 weeks, but is clinging to an important Fib level.

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