Powell: Let’s Get This Party Started

Jerome Powell gave a good news/bad news speech to the Economic Club of New York. He noted that employment is still 10 million below February 2020 levels and that a broader range of unemployment would put the current rate at 10%, adding, “We are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are … continue reading →

CPI: Nov 13, 2019

Today is off to an interesting start.  Following Trump’s call for negative interest rates and more grandstanding on China in New York yesterday, headline CPI came in hotter than expected but right in line with our forecast. As we’ve discussed, this is the result of oil and gas trending sideways in support of the upcoming … continue reading →

Why Interest Rates Must Not Rise

In May 2014 many of us were shocked by a report that Ben Bernanke, who had recently departed the Fed, told a group of wealthy investors that he did “not expect the federal funds rate…to rise back to its long-term average of around 4%” in his lifetime. I remember feeling Bernanke’s statement represented both extraordinary … continue reading →

Not Exactly Reassuring…

The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday.  Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters. Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, … continue reading →