On the Bubble

Our yield curve model sounded the alarm on Friday. But, by the end of the day, it had backed off and cooler heads prevailed. It’s important to recognize, however, that it remains on the bubble, with only a few basis points standing between a rally and another leg down. From a fundamental standpoint, there seems … continue reading →

Powell’s Testimony

Bottom line, a 50 bps rate hike is back on the table. We got the backtest we expected, and even a little bit more. This morning’s ADP employment report further underscores the need to put the brakes on the economy. It will be interesting to see whether Powell’s tone becomes any less hawkish in light … continue reading →

Fed Whispering

The FOMC’s meeting gets underway today. Like most, this one seems very consequential. The Street is divided on whether or not the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as well as the necessity of a recession. continued for members… … continue reading →

VIX: Not a Coincidence

When COMP bounced at 10,572.33 on Friday, a mere 7.19 above its June 16 lows, it might have struck some as a coincidence.  It wasn’t. It was a well-coordinated effort to ensure that new lows were avoided – at least for the time being.The usual culprit: VIX.  For the 6th session in a row and … continue reading →

Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →

Pretty Soon, You’re Talking Real Money

Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.  It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst … continue reading →

The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →