Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K. When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… 
…it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower.
continued for members…
Still looking for the SMA10 backtest, which is at the bottom of the rising red acceleration channel. If the channel holds, the highest we’re likely to see it the gray .886.
Note that a return to SPX 3826ish would complete a H&S Pattern targeting 3,422.
Of course, we tried this once before back in October. That H&S targeted the 2020 highs but was cut short about 100 points away from its target…
…by a breakdown in VIX and DXY.
The XLU model supports the notion of a slightly higher high around Apr 17. However, it tagged its SMA200 this morning at the top of the falling red channel, so any move higher would likely be choppy and iffy at best and would probably follow at least a bit of a pullback.
On the currency front, EURUSD is still hanging on but unlikely to go any higher.
While USDJPY is clinging to support as the NKD settles back to its SMA200. 
With so much attention on inflation, we keep a close eye on oil/gas – which after the OPEC+ boost have made little headway.
As a result, and due at least in part to the worsening macroeconomic environment, TNX is threatening another breakdown. This supports the idea of lower lows in equities in the not too distant future.
Of course, it’s the spread between the 2Y and 10Y that we’re watching so closely.
It tested -0.42 again yesterday before falling back to -0.49.
I wish things were more clear, but they’re just not. EURUSD could remain propped up, CL could hold its pop, and VIX could prevail over VX futures – which hint at opposite results.
SPX’s SMA10 is rising about 10-12 points per day, so it’s quite possible we get through the 3-day weekend unscathed. It’s extra tricky due to employment data hitting on a day (Good Friday) without trading.
Stay frosty.