Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared for…
…raising the prospect of spike in the 10Y to 4.76% by mid-August. One of the few developments that could prevent it: a collapse in oil/gas prices.
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