pebblewriter

Tag: NKD

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 30, 2024

    Futures are slightly lower on the last day of a pretty impressive Q3 at +8.7%.Can the rally keep going in October?

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  • Update on Currencies: Apr 2, 2024

    We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars.

    Aside from exposing the ludicrousness of its monetary policy, Japan’s recently unveiled 0.0-0.1% interest rate regime speaks volumes to the pressures of trying to balance economic reality with the desire for ever higher stock prices.

    Slamming the yen’s value works fine – to a point. But, as rising food and energy costs pressure the real economy, something has to give.

    Enter the euro.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 9, 2023

    The prop job continues, with VIX reaching a lower low and the DXY still under pressure.

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  • PPI Echoes CPI

    After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY.

    As we discussed yesterday, 80% of the MoM decline was due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.

    Also out this morning, credit portfolio managers agree with the Fed’s assessment that the economy is headed for recession. It’s a troubling backdrop as we enter earnings season in the midst of a credit crunch.

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  • Jobless Claims Pile On

    Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K.  When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… …it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower. continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 4, 2023

    After reaching our next upside target, futures have settled into a pause.

    No surprise, as the algo factors are doing the same.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 23, 2023

    Futures have rebounded about 0.5% following yesterday’s roller coaster session that saw SPX backtest its SMA200.

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  • Bulls: Throwing in the Towel?

    As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch.

    The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, we’re left to wonder whether the bulls are ready to throw in the towel.

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  • Abe Dead, Abenomics on Life Support

    The universe has no trouble surprising us at times – things that make you stop and say “hmmm.” It is perhaps ironic that Shinzo Abe, architect of the greatest experiment in central bank monetary expansion and market manipulation in our lifetimes, has been shot dead as that experiment is being unwound. Naturally, the Nikkei futures are higher – which is what Abe would have wanted.Meanwhile, US markets are experiencing a little indigestion after learning that jobs growth is still strong, prompting Fed president Bostick to affirm his desire to raise rates another 75 bps this month.

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