Update on Currencies: Apr 2, 2024

We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars. Aside from exposing the ludicrousness … continue reading →

PPI Echoes CPI

After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →

Jobless Claims Pile On

Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K.  When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… …it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower. continued for members… … continue reading →

Bulls: Throwing in the Towel?

As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch. The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, … continue reading →

Abe Dead, Abenomics on Life Support

The universe has no trouble surprising us at times – things that make you stop and say “hmmm.” It is perhaps ironic that Shinzo Abe, architect of the greatest experiment in central bank monetary expansion and market manipulation in our lifetimes, has been shot dead as that experiment is being unwound. Naturally, the Nikkei futures … continue reading →

It’s Currencies’ Turn

USDJPY finally tagged our 132.22 target overnight… …a target we set over six months ago [see: Update on Currencies Nov 17, 2021]:Ordinarily, this might be a good thing for stocks. Not this time, as it echos the dollar’s strength against the euro. continued for members… … continue reading →