Futures tanked overnight on news of Israel’s rocket attack on Iran, only to recover all their losses as we go to press. The latest retaliation is being characterized as a tit for tat. But it’s easy to imagine the Plunge Protection Team working overtime to calm markets by hammering VIX and WTI back down from … continue reading →
As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, … continue reading →
I’ve seen one particular assessment over and over in the financial news this morning: The market’s rebound following Iran’s missile strikes last night was “surprising.” No, it is most certainly not surprising! Not even a little bit. Anyone who pays the least bit of attention to charts could have seen this coming a mile away. … continue reading →
Not too surprisingly, the Iran problem didn’t go away over the weekend. If anything, both sides are making threats that would significantly expand the conflict. What’s more, Trump’s unilateral actions have resulted in Iraq’s parliament calling for all US troops to withdraw from Iraq – without question an important win for Iran. Trump’s 2011 predictions … continue reading →
WTI futures spiked nearly 5% overnight in the wake of a US drone strike on Baghdad Airport which killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani. It is a dangerous escalation in the US conflict with Iran which broadened when Trump alarmed US allies by pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal last May. We argued at … continue reading →