Stagflation Fears Renewed

January PPI came in much hotter than expected while housing starts and permits fell far short of consensus, stoking persistent fears of stagflation.  PPI came in at 0.3% MoM versus 0.1% expected.  Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. Stripping out trade services, the tally rose to 0.6%, its highest print … continue reading →

NFP Soars

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May. The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive.  … continue reading →

No Pivot, No Punch Bowl

Powell said what many of us have been thinking: There’s no reason to rush into a rate cut. The part he didn’t say (but implied) was that there was a clear risk to cutting rates at this time. The market, which has been fueled for months by rate cut expectations, was quite disappointed. SPX shed … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 22, 2024

Futures rose to fresh highs overnight on algo action. Currencies, commodities and VIX all remain in position to aid this rally – as long as the bevy of earnings due out this week complies. continued for members… … continue reading →

Finally, a Backtest

We finally saw the backtest we’ve been expecting as SPX fell a whopping 70 points (-1.47%), almost reaching its 10-day moving average and bleeding off its overbought condition. ES came within a few points of our Fibonacci backtest, also coming up just short of its 10-DMA.continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation Not Done

We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning. The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – … continue reading →

Minute by Minute

The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything … continue reading →