Amazon: Can it Keep Delivering?

AMZN stock cares about its 200-day moving average. In fact, it cares a lot. When it pushed above its 2903 Fibonacci target in late 2020, it spent 8 months waiting for the SMA200 (the thick red line below) to arrive and another 11 months defending it. When it finally broke down in January 2022, it began a plunge that ultimately exceeded 50%.  Since January 2023, it has recovered nicely, clawing back above the SMA200 to the midline of the channel that dates back to the year 2000.But, this leaves it at its 200-week moving average and overbought amidst negative divergence while long overdue for a backtest of its 200-day moving average. A backtest from current prices would amount to about 20% – though the SMA200 is on the rise.

It should be noted that AMZN has been more volatile than the overall market. But, it’s not hard to imagine a sharp decline in the third largest component of the S&P500 leaving a mark on stocks in general.

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