Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023

Futures are up moderately on USD weakness.  The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above.  This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or … continue reading →

AAPL & AMZN on Deck

Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited. … continue reading →

A Swing and a Miss

Economic data came in as expected except for Philly Fed – a huge miss at -19.4 versus -5.0 consensus and -8.7 prior. But, it was the former dove turned chief hawk Jim Bullard who decided enough is enough, suggesting rates could reach as high as 7% before inflation is tamed. Futures were not amused. It’s … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

The headlines have been coming fast and furious over the last 24 hours.  First, Trump’s tweet yesterday morning regarding trade negotiations with China touched off a rumor, declared false this morning, that a trade deal was imminent. But, SPX soared yesterday anyway. Then AAPL’s earnings came out.  The numbers were underwhelming; and, the company’s announcement … continue reading →

The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 29, 2013

Currencies are relatively quiet this morning in the midst of a slew of earnings and economic data. The dollar looks like it could hit our downside target of 79.50 – 79.59 from Jan 25 [see: Update on DX] this morning if the yellow channel holds, but note that its midline intersects with the bottom of … continue reading →