This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday. Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets. Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% … continue reading →
September PPI came in at 0.5% versus 0.3% expectations, briefly driving down futures prices…until VIX was hammered back down. Its 200-day moving average continues to be the critical threshold for algos. It remains to be seen whether tomorrow’s CPI print can also be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures just tagged our 50-day SMA target, but need to drop another 20 points if SPX is to reach its. continued for members… … continue reading →
After a brief respite, bank stocks are again under pressure with deposit flight and CDS both pointing to escalating concerns. Neither the April CPI nor PPI prints support the notion that the Fed will lower rates any time soon – keeping the pressure on banks and an economy that depends on easy access to cheap … continue reading →
After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →
It’s a little known fact that if you’re trying to get over the pain of back-to-back knee replacements, you should have rotator cuff surgery. At least that’s what my horoscope said. As a result, my typing skills will be a little off this morning, which means my market insight might also be a bit off. … continue reading →
PPI just confirmed what CPI declared yesterday: Despite official White House discourse, there is inflation.Of course, it’s very clear that food, energy and trade services are the primary drivers. Without them, PPI is as low as it was in Aug 2017.As a reminder, when Aug 2017 PPI was announced, the 10Y was about 2.1% versus … continue reading →
One nice thing about patterns is that they give you something to hang your hat on. When we drew the Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern on Jul 3 [see: Holiday Headfake] there was nothing in the news to suggest a 100-pt rally in the ensuing week. Yet, SPX and ES landed within a point or … continue reading →