pebblewriter

Tag: housing starts

  • Stagflation Fears Renewed

    January PPI came in much hotter than expected while housing starts and permits fell far short of consensus, stoking persistent fears of stagflation.  PPI came in at 0.3% MoM versus 0.1% expected.  Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. Stripping out trade services, the tally rose to 0.6%, its highest print since January 2023.

    Monthly gains in the index for final demand for services again outpaced that for goods at +0.6% versus -0.2%. Had energy prices not continued their decline (-1.7%) the print would have been even more alarming.

    Futures had been slightly higher overnight, but fell into the red after the closely followed prints. continued for members… (more…)

  • All Eyes on CPI

    This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday.  Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets.

    Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% YoY, with shelter (+7.2% YoY) accounting for over 70% of the increase. With the recent sharp drop in mortgage rates, shelter could remain stubbornly high, complicating the Fed’s inflation fighting efforts and thus paring the market’s optimism.

    Futures are off moderately in advance of tomorrow’s data after nailing our channel top target.

    continued for members… (more…)