Q4 GDP Beats

Q4 advanced GDP came in at 3.3% annualized versus 2.0% estimates and full year 2023’s 2.5%. The PCE price index and durable goods orders came in as expected, though durable goods ex-transportation came in sharply higher than estimates.  The numbers… Futures had already bounced at the rising white channel midline, but extended their gains after … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 22, 2024

Futures rose to fresh highs overnight on algo action. Currencies, commodities and VIX all remain in position to aid this rally – as long as the bevy of earnings due out this week complies. continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 29, 2023

Futures are up sharply in advance of the open after a $10 billion GM share repurchase announcement and a GDP revision that did nothing to dissuade algos from the notion that the Fed will soon be cutting rates VIX is plumbing new lows. The market is rapidly running out of room for a pullback/backtest of … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way. Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was … continue reading →

Q1 GDP Disappoints

GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.1% versus expectations of over 2% and Q4’s 2.6%, fueling both recession fears and expectations that the Fed will soon halt rate hikes after next week’s 25 bps increase. Futures dipped on the news but have since rebounded as the usual VIX smackdown convinced algos to look on … continue reading →

What Recovery?

It was thoughtful of eurostat to include the US in their chart.  Funny, that’s not the chart one would picture based on the MSM’s steady drumbeat of “recovery!” Germany, which had previously taken an ambivalent attitude about the soaring euro, might change its tune following its worst GDP print since Q408.  The main culprit?  Exports, … continue reading →

Ay, There’s the Rube

Oil is often viewed as a proxy for economic health.  In a growing economy, energy consumption increases.  This increased demand generally pressures prices higher.  Likewise, a decline in oil prices often accompanies declining demand. That’s a greatly oversimplified view, of course.  It ignores such important issues such as Middle East tensions, weather and refinery anomalies, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Dec 10, 2012

The market continues to walk a tightrope between another leg up and a very significant tumble.  We’ve been here many times before in the past year, and it isn’t getting any more fun.  To recap… We remain short from 1423 on Dec 3 [see: Without a Net].  This was target A established in our Oct … continue reading →