pebblewriter

Tag: Ukraine

  • Update on Oil & Gas: Sep 4, 2024

    Oil and gas futures have both tagged our next downside targets from June [see: Update on Oil & Gas, June 6, 2024.].

    We’ll take a look at the road ahead and what it means for the equity and bond markets.

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  • Update on Gold & Silver: Apr 17, 2024

    Gold and silver both came within 1% of our upside targets for them earlier this week. With inflationary pressures once again top of mind, have they exhausted their upside potential?  We’ll update our long-term forecasts this morning.

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  • Analog Watch: May 13, 2022

    Friday the 13th – an inauspicious day to break a new analog!  With SPX nailing our downside target and futures breaking out of the falling wedge pattern yesterday, we’re off to the races.

    These things don’t always work out. But, when they do, it can be a career-making trading opportunity. The one which worked out absurdly well was back in 2011. The 22% correction played out almost exactly as forecast, with the vicious 11-day, 18% plunge starting on the very day and within 1 point of what the analog promised. You can read all about it HERE.

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  • Because

    Just because we’re seeing an economic slowdown amidst very high inflation in a Fed tightening cycle against the backdrop of a war that could draw the US into armed conflict…doesn’t mean the market has to react rationally.

    Stocks were up sharply yesterday because they’re still driven largely by algorithms. And, yesterday, the algos were focused on the fact that VIX broke down. In fact, if you invested according to VIX’s gyrations, you’d think there’s absolutely nothing to be concerned about in the investing world.

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  • The Ukraine Crisis Worsens

    Russian troops entered Eastern Ukraine following its formal recognition of the two separatist regions, marking an escalation in the seriousness of the Ukraine crisis.  Futures fell over 94 points from Friday’s close before the algos kicked in and are now down less than 10 as we approach the open.

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