This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday. Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets. Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% … continue reading →
We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July. Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t … continue reading →
April retail sales came in at 0.4% versus expectations of 0.8%, underscoring the notion that the economy isn’t nearly as strong as the market would have you believe. Futures, already off slightly, have added to their losses. It remains to be seen, however, whether the propping up of equities in advance of OPEX and the … continue reading →