Inflation Heads Higher: Apr 10, 2024

March CPI came in at 0.4% MoM for both headline and core (versus 0.3% expectations for both), hotter than expected for the second month in a row.  YoY headline registered at 3.5% versus expectations of 3.4% and 3.2% in February and core came in at 3.8% (unchanged from February) versus expectations of 3.7%.

As we expected, inflation continues to be buttressed by strong YoY energy, shelter and services prices. Our gas vs inflation model remains on track.

Futures came within a few points of our next downside target on the print.

And, algos are finally recognizing that a string of 0.4% monthly prints can turn into an annual print much closer to 5% than 2%.

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