Decision Time, Again

We start this morning’s post with a peek at the Russell 2000 as it perfectly illustrates the dilemma facing the broader markets this morning. Up until September 2017, RUT followed a well-defined rising channel shown below in yellow.  Like all channels, it was defined by the tops and bottoms along the way. The only problem: … continue reading →

Just When You Thought it was Safe…

The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22… $ES_F just reached our next upside target.https://t.co/zTy3q8WSBd pic.twitter.com/CoRSemmDOk — pebblewriter (@pebblewriter) January 22, 2020 …is playing out very nicely indeed. Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking … continue reading →

Because Appearances Matter

It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO.  But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →

Time for Bulls to Get Nervous?

SPX needed about 22 points downside to reach the support of its SMA50, a rising channel bottom, and a falling channel bottom.  ES, which finally reached our 2655 target from last week [see FOMC: Endgame] is currently off 30 points. At this rate, SPX will breach its support on the open, especially if USDJPY doesn’t … continue reading →

Not Exactly Reassuring…

The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday.  Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters. Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2018

Futures are back to flat, having bounced a bit on the Iran sanction news as it provided a modest (so far) bounce for oil and gas prices.The market has a wait and see feel to it this morning, with AAPL breaking down further……but, the algos all but ignoring it, focusing instead on dollar strength (TNX … continue reading →

Coincidences and Consequences

It’s interesting how Khashoggi’s murder top-ticked oil and gas prices… …and, so soon after Trump’s latest demand that OPEC lower oil prices. I’m certainly not insinuating that Trump had anything to do with Khashoggi’s murder. But, OPEC ignored Trump’s Sep 20 demand.  Two weeks later, oil prices had spiked 10% higher.  Since Oct 3, the … continue reading →