Futures have regained about 30 points after last week’s drubbing.

continued for members…

Friday’s PCE print should be the pivotal print this week. Both SPX and ES are currently well below their rising white channels.
ES needs to hold this little red TL and push back above its short-term moving averages – though it has already backtested the broken white channel.

Important levels of support were breached, but importantly, VIX is threatening to push back below the red TL at about 18.35.A drop back below the dashed TL below would be even more helpful to stocks.

EURUSD isn’t helping, as it still appears headed lower. While USDJPY is barely higher. Bottom line, DXY is still looking strong – a negative for stocks.Oil and gas aren’t helping stocks either. CL and RB aren’t making new highs, but they’re not breaking down either. Note that CL has reached its SMA50, but has SMA200 support just below.

Thus, TNX remains elevated near recent highs.It’s unusual for stocks to tank into OPEX. But, when they do, it’s not unusual to see a nice rebound afterwards. I don’t have statistics on this, but the pattern has been fairly obvious of late as seen on this 2022 chart for SPY.It’s just that Friday’s breakdown below the white channel is potentially significant, and SPX hasn’t really reached the next level of important support at SPX4674 or the SMA200 at 4677.  Caution continues to be warranted.

Stay tuned…