Futures are off moderately on light volume…

… and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

continued for members… The mystery continues.  Will they or won’t they allow a breakdown. We’re back to watching for a rollover, which is looking pretty good on the 60-min chart.

Currencies continue to stay out of the fray, with DXY taking another shot at breaking above its SMA10.

CL and RB continue to roll over. Remember, EIA reports inventory this morning.

So far, TNX is ignoring them and pressuring the jumble of MAs just above.Though the 10Y is rising, so is the 2Y…in lockstep at a 2s10s of -63 bps. As it often does, SPY shows the charts problem we face.  It busted out of the very nice falling white channel we had going since Jan 2022, and has since floundered around. It fell back into the channel on Mar 9 when it had a chance to merely backtest it.

It has since retraced to above the white .886 and is probably eyeing the purple .618. Though the yellow TL from Oct presents overhead resistance.  This is what happens when TPTB start playing around with VIX and currencies. Nothing else seems to matter much.

It’s interesting to me that the debt ceiling limit is forecast to be reached about the same time (Jun 21ish) our XLU model suggests we’ll face another cycle low.

Friday is OPEX.  Stay frosty…

UPDATE: 12:45 PM

ES has backtested the neckline (again) as well as the latest red TL, while VIX has made new cycle lows along the falling red TL from Apr 6.