PPI dropped just a bit from last month, registering 10.8% YoY (unadjusted) for May versus 10.9% for April and 11.5% for March. The MoM tally was +0.8% for May versus 0.4% for April. The very slight drop in the YoY data is unlikely to assuage the Fed’s fears about inflation being out of control. But, … continue reading →
Tag Archives: DX
ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target. The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully. continued for members… … continue reading →
USDJPY finally tagged our 132.22 target overnight… …a target we set over six months ago [see: Update on Currencies Nov 17, 2021]:Ordinarily, this might be a good thing for stocks. Not this time, as it echos the dollar’s strength against the euro. continued for members… … continue reading →
PCE comes out later this morning, providing the most up-to-date picture of the challenge facing the Fed. Judging from yesterday’s 2% pop, investors are hopeful that inflation might be leveling off. Futures are off very slightly. continuing… … continue reading →
SPX closed below important support yesterday, suggesting that the current leg down isn’t yet over. Indeed, things could get worse.continued for members… … continue reading →
Yankee great Yogi Berra famously advised that “when you come to a fork in the road, take it.” The S&P 500 is weighing such a decision this morning, having closed Friday at a critical level of technical support. A rebound from here would buy the Fed a little more time for inflation and hawkishness to … continue reading →
The dollar index continues its tear, surpassing both its 2017 and 2020 highs this morning. This is consistent with our forecast [see: Apr 11 Update on Currencies] that the Fed would need help from a rising dollar to attack inflation without having to resort to sky-high interest rates that would further accelerate the growth of … continue reading →
Yesterday marked the fourth time in the past two months that SPX tested the same important Fib level. The failure to maintain a trend is becoming…well, a trend. Will SPX keep playing the same old song or is it finally time for this trend to be broken? continued for members… … continue reading →
We published USDJPY’s next highest target months ago with the caveat that it would mean completing a large IH&S that targeted much higher levels and was, thus, far from certain. With inflation already rising sharply, would the BoJ willingly inflict even higher prices on Japanese citizens and businesses just to keep the yen carry trade … continue reading →
Headline PPI reached record highs in February, coming in at 10.0% YoY. Under the hood, prices for unfinished goods registered 14.6%, the highest since January 2001. Prices for processed goods jumped 23.3%. Prices increased across the board, with the largest gains in energy. Futures were flat going into the early morning VIX plunge, but gained … continue reading →