Holding the Line

Can VIX be contained for another few days? If you want to know what’s going to happen in the market this week, that’s the critical question. As weak earnings reports and economic data have dribbled out over the past week, VIX has tested its 200-day moving average almost every day. Every time it comes close, … continue reading →

It’s Currencies’ Turn

USDJPY finally tagged our 132.22 target overnight… …a target we set over six months ago [see: Update on Currencies Nov 17, 2021]:Ordinarily, this might be a good thing for stocks. Not this time, as it echos the dollar’s strength against the euro. continued for members… … continue reading →

Fed Minutes on Deck

Futures are off sharply as we approach the open. Algos are responding to VIX’s pop back above its 200-DMA and the prospect of increasing Fed hawkishness. As we pointed out yesterday, the 10Y has again reached the top of a well-formed channel dating back over 30 years. Its ongoing decline has provided much of the … continue reading →

Not Transitory, Not Even Close

If gasoline prices remain where they are or continue to rise, Powell will be just plain wrong about inflation being transitory. This is what to expect if gas prices were to flatline at this level through December. Unless most of the other components of inflation were to nosedive, CPI will remain well above 2% for … continue reading →

Don’t Fight the BoJ

I know what you’re thinking: it’s “don’t fight the Fed.” While that’s generally true, too, the Bank of Japan is the central bank which most conspicuously wears its balance sheet on its sleeve. When my charts are a farrago of bearish indicators, but the Nikkei pushes up through resistance? I’ve learned to ignore the indicators … continue reading →

Update on NKD: May 29, 2013

While the Nikkei hasn’t officially been on our hit list, it’s certainly been fascinating to watch.  Today, it earned its very own page on pebblewriter.com. Late last night (early this morning?) I updated the USDJPY [HERE] which was at a critical point in its own rally to the moon.  It recently broke down through the … continue reading →