PCE comes out later this morning, providing the most up-to-date picture of the challenge facing the Fed. Judging from yesterday’s 2% pop, investors are hopeful that inflation might be leveling off. Futures are off very slightly.

continuing…I will be on the road well before the news comes out and the overnight action occurs, so this is more of a review than a forecast.

Our analog is still very much on track, with yesterday’s gains putting ES/SPX safely above important support and that much closer to their SMA50s and a 10/20 cross – events which might very well spell the end of the bounce.

The size and timing of today’s bounce means we’ll probably see some backtesting before the final push which isn’t due to peter out until next Friday.

The biggest developments on our charts are in currencies, where EURUSD reached its channel midline and DXY completed its backtest.

I expect we’ll see a nice bounce here for DXY, with USDJPY perhaps moderating it just a bit longer.GC and SI are still stalling… …and BTC backed off its earlier threats to decline.Oil and gas are still waffling, also killing time…

…allowing TNX to continue its breakdown/backtest.Much has been said about gas prices lately. The only thing I would add to the conversation is that at these prices we’ll eventually see some demand destruction – which is probably the only thing (aside from Putin going home) that will bring prices back down. It wouldn’t help food prices much……but it might provide a hint of lower inflation, which could in turn allow the Fed to pause their rate hikes.

GLTA.