ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target.

The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully.

continued for members…This interim level on ES is a potential bounce point – not because it was forecast by our analog but because it is the white .382 and the yellow channel midline. But, there is still plenty of downside per the analog.

With the Fed due to announce a possibly larger rate hike than many expected in a matter of days, a big bounce is a tall order. But, we often see a bounce into the Fed announcement which, in this case, is adjacent to an OPEX day.

If we do get a substantial bounce, the most likely target IMO would be to backtest the red channel midline at 3930 or 3.618 Fib at 3956. One indicator to watch is VIX, which will run into the fan line off the 2020 highs at around 33.50 (it has reached 33.24 so far.) A breakout would certainly accelerate stocks’ decline. Note that the huge IH&S will complete at 38.34ish. The next EURUSD breakdown has finally arrived… …which has accelerated DXY’s bounce. …helping GC and SI to slump further. BTC has also finally broken down.CL and RB are off modestly on no news. More later…