Blowout Retail Sales Nudge Rates Higher

We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July. Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t … continue reading →

On the Brink

While the investing world argues whether the FOMC will or should raise rates a whopping 25 bps, the bond market is sending a strong message that markets are on the brink of a significant move.Futures, drawn higher by the usual pre-meeting meltup, are oblivious. continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2022

It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally. But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher. It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil … continue reading →

Should We Fear a Yield Curve Inversion?

It seems like everyone’s talking about the yield curve. Will it invert? If so, when? Would it imply or even precipitate a recession? How would it affect Fed policy? What would it mean for the stock market? Since our work focuses on forecasting markets, let’s set aside for the moment whether an inversion means a … continue reading →

Update on XLF: Nov 17, 2020

After being stuck in a textbook triangle pattern for almost six months, XLF finally broke out last week. We noted its having reached overhead resistance a few weeks ago [see: Yield Curve Model – Correction Imminent.] At the time, the 2s10s was threatening a breakout which, per our model, suggested a downturn for equities in … continue reading →