pebblewriter

Tag: recession

  • Retail Sales Warn of Economic Woes

    Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%.

    It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than expected and retail sales much lower than expected – sounds like a recipe for stagflation. With the UK officially sliding into recession, can the US be far behind?

    Futures have given up some of their slight overnight gains.

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  • Food for Thought

    There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue.

    Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, resulting in a bear market.  Food for thought.

    It’s another quiet morning so far, with futures flat for the most part after testing our 20-day moving average target yesterday.

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