While the investing world argues whether the FOMC will or should raise rates a whopping 25 bps, the bond market is sending a strong message that markets are on the brink of a significant move.Futures, drawn higher by the usual pre-meeting meltup, are oblivious.

continued for members…

First, the big picture shows plenty of breakouts.

Note that DJI should get a clear shot at its SMA200 today……thanks largely to VIX, which has plunged below its SMA200 with a vengeance. The big question is whether this is the usual pre-meeting ramp job to cushion the blow from tomorrow’s decision or whether it actually has legs.

The EURUSD is still providing plenty of cover, while USDJPY continues to slip lower. Net effect is a weaker DXY which helps out stocks.

Though GC, SI and BTC all seem to be tiring at these levels. CL and RB are pushing slightly higher… …supporting a higher 10Y. …which is occurring against the backdrop of a falling 2Y.  This means the 2s10s is at a real risk of breaking above resistance (less negative)… …which, as we’ve noted many times before, is almost always very harmful to stocks.

I’ll be out of the office all day today. But, keep a close eye on the 2s10s. A sustained push above -42 bps would be a very bearish signal for stocks.