pebblewriter

Tag: inversion

  • Food for Thought

    There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue.

    Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, resulting in a bear market.  Food for thought.

    It’s another quiet morning so far, with futures flat for the most part after testing our 20-day moving average target yesterday.

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  • On the Brink

    While the investing world argues whether the FOMC will or should raise rates a whopping 25 bps, the bond market is sending a strong message that markets are on the brink of a significant move.Futures, drawn higher by the usual pre-meeting meltup, are oblivious.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2022

    It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally.

    But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher.

    It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil and gas. On the other hand, it could be a sign of turbulence ahead.

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