Food for Thought

There’s some good research on this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue. Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, … continue reading β†’

On the Brink

While the investing world argues whether the FOMC will or should raise rates a whopping 25 bps, the bond market is sending a strong message that markets are on the brink of a significant move.Futures, drawn higher by the usual pre-meeting meltup, are oblivious. continued for members… … continue reading β†’

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2022

It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally. But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher. It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil … continue reading β†’