July CPI came in on target again, aided by the administration’s efforts to suppress oil and gas prices. Headline CPI was 3.4%, down slightly from June’s 3.5%. As always, take these data with a huge grain of salt. It means next to nothing when Trump/Bessent dictate what the number should be. But, at least it provides some insight into their thinking.

The key continues to be oil and (especially) gas prices, which our charts indicate are heading higher over the next month.

But, the algos are happy, and the campaign to protect the early June highs is succeeding…so far. Timing for a potential down leg has moved out to Sep 11 (ominous, to say the least…might be a good day to decline that ride on Air Force One.)

Of course, much credit goes to VIX, which is threatening new lows.

And, the DXY remains subdued.

I continue to expect Iran to do what it can to ensure that Trump has a very bad day on November 3. Contrary to Trump’s assertion that the US has “total control over the Hormuz Strait” the ships that try to navigate the strait are being fired upon and are thus not even risking it. Eight crossings were reported last week, down from 130/wk prior to Trump’s bombing campaign which began Feb 28.