The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y.

It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level.

continued for members…Although RB is signaling a pullback this morning……we would need to see a dramatic drop in order to offset the base effect.The equity picture this morning…

VIX continues to help the bears, despite the 10/20 cross. We should see some movement after tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

EURUSD continues to tumble, with the small red TL and SMA200 coming into view.

GC and BTC continue to respond to dollar firming while SI is getting a breather.

TNX gapped higher this morning despite the bearish 10/20 cross……thanks chiefly to CL and RB. However, it doesn’t change the bond picture – which continues to rock along in a safe zone.

The Fed will almost certainly raise rates by 25 bps tomorrow – a move which has been priced in for months. This shouldn’t change things in the bond market – which has remained remarkably stable lately. The 2s10s should continue to rock along at -90-100 bps.

GLTA