The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST: 6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out. EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →
Tag Archives: rising wedge
ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4. It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →
I’ve been quite bearish since going short on April 11 at 1597 [Big Picture: 11:30 update.] Yesterday, though, SPX reached our initial downside target of 1540 and, as expected, paused. As we’ve discussed, this was an important points for bulls to take a stand. It was also the ideal spot from which to launch the … continue reading →
With Cyprus saved, the sanctity of the EU intact, and a US budget deal passed, we can all go back to watching the market ratchet up 10 points/day, right? Here’s the fundamental problem. continued for members… … continue reading →
The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus. Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close. It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →
Just about every other index has reached an important harmonic and/or chart pattern target. Given the NFP print, this could be the day SPX finally reaches 1553-1555. Best to be long on the opening, and ready to re-short fairly quickly. The dollar isn’t waiting, surging nearly 1% on the day and resolving the question as … continue reading →
If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.) Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →
With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below. It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →
RUT has reached the upper bound of a well-defined channel that dates back to 1998. It could leak slightly higher in reaching for the top of the large rising wedge and some key Fib levels, but I suspect RUT has reached a turning point. continued for members… … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 6:00 AM SPX ended yesterday just below our 1497 trigger point at the neckline. I know the bulls would love to blow through this level and negate the H&S, but I think they’ve really got their work cut out for them, especially given the political mess in Italy and the looming US sequester. … continue reading →