Our yield curve model is again sounding the alarm on overpriced equities. Unless the 10Y – which closed its June 8 gap this morning – declines sharply right away, the 2s10s spread signals a sharp equity downturn to finish the correction which began on Oct 12.The bad news for equities? A sharp drop in the … continue reading →
Tag Archives: rising wedge
ES is reaching our next downside target right on schedule.Note that if ES hadn’t spurted past its February highs in late August, falling to our 100-DMA target would have involved a fairly shallow drop of 5.5% and would have preserved the rising white channel. Instead, we have a 10.8% loss so far and face much … continue reading →
Stocks nailed our second downside target from last Friday [see: Correction Warning.] Judging from the financial press, it was a shock to the average investor. It’s sad that a 4.5% correction would warrant such concern. But, as I often say, that’s the world in which we’re living. Bulls need February’s highs to hold, while bears … continue reading →
As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout. Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI. Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… The daily … continue reading →
The eminis are flirting with danger this morning, having ducked below a key channel midline (dashed, purple) but bouncing off a smaller channel bottom and another channel midline (dashed, white) near a .786 (1674.15) for a Gartley Pattern completion. The dollar is threatening to break out of the falling wedge…. And, the SPX is set … continue reading →
The pair has dropped like a rock since the purple channel broke down on June 5. It reached the .886 Fib as expected [CIW: Jun 6], then immediately bounced back above the neckline of the H&S Pattern it had completed (in red, below.) The following day, it fell back through that neckline, and has spent … continue reading →
On April 2, 2012, SPX completed a Butterfly Pattern at 1421 — the 1.272 extension of the July – October 2011 plunge. It provided a great entry point for the fledgling pebblewriter.com’s first major short position. We scored over 20% in about 2 months [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] trading the 11% decline. XLF hadn’t … continue reading →
The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST: 6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out. EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4. It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →
I’ve been quite bearish since going short on April 11 at 1597 [Big Picture: 11:30 update.] Yesterday, though, SPX reached our initial downside target of 1540 and, as expected, paused. As we’ve discussed, this was an important points for bulls to take a stand. It was also the ideal spot from which to launch the … continue reading →