Yield Curve Model: “Correction Imminent”

Our yield curve model is again sounding the alarm on overpriced equities. Unless the 10Y – which closed its June 8 gap this morning – declines sharply right away, the 2s10s spread signals a sharp equity downturn to finish the correction which began on Oct 12.The bad news for equities? A sharp drop in the … continue reading →

Fear and Greed

ES is reaching our next downside target right on schedule.Note that if ES hadn’t spurted past its February highs in late August, falling to our 100-DMA target would have involved a fairly shallow drop of 5.5% and would have preserved the rising white channel. Instead, we have a 10.8% loss so far and face much … continue reading →

Having Fun Yet?

Stocks nailed our second downside target from last Friday [see: Correction Warning.] Judging from the financial press, it was a shock to the average investor.  It’s sad that a 4.5% correction would warrant such concern. But, as I often say, that’s the world in which we’re living. Bulls need February’s highs to hold, while bears … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 12, 2017

As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout.  Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI.  Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… The daily … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 12, 2013

The eminis are flirting with danger this morning, having ducked below a key channel midline (dashed, purple) but bouncing off a smaller channel bottom and another channel midline (dashed, white) near a .786 (1674.15) for a Gartley Pattern completion. The dollar is threatening to break out of the falling wedge…. And, the SPX is set … continue reading →

Update on USDJPY: Jun 18, 2013

The pair has dropped like a rock since the purple channel broke down on June 5.  It reached the .886 Fib as expected [CIW: Jun 6], then immediately bounced back above the neckline of the H&S Pattern it had completed (in red, below.) The following day, it fell back through that neckline, and has spent … continue reading →

XLF: Playing Catch Up

On April 2, 2012, SPX completed a Butterfly Pattern at 1421 — the 1.272 extension of the July – October 2011 plunge.  It provided a great entry point for the fledgling pebblewriter.com’s first major short position. We scored over 20% in about 2 months [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] trading the 11% decline. XLF hadn’t … continue reading →

The Best Laid Plans

The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST:  6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out.  EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →

Chart Patterns and You

ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4.  It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →

The Storm Before the Calm

I’ve been quite bearish since going short on April 11 at 1597 [Big Picture: 11:30 update.]  Yesterday, though, SPX reached our initial downside target of 1540 and, as expected, paused. As we’ve discussed, this was an important points for bulls to take a stand.  It was also the ideal spot from which to launch the … continue reading →