FOMC Day: Mar 20, 2024

Markets are at all-time highs as we await the FOMC’s latest decision on interest rates. Note that we’re going on 21 months of a yield curve inversion, the longest since August 1978 to May 1980. Interestingly, the market was flirting with new, all-time highs back then as well. Also interesting, that was one of many … continue reading →

PCE in Line

January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December. In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at … continue reading →

All Eyes on CPI

CPI, due out tomorrow morning, always plays an important role in driving interest rates and economic forecasts. This one is especially important given the extent to which the market has already rallied in anticipation of lower rates. Our gas price model for CPI shows inflation settling lower after a slight bump up over the last … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Feb 27, 2023

Last week completed the backtests we’d been expecting, with ES, SPX, COMP, DJIA and NKD all holding important technical support.While the fundamental picture might not justify these prices, the algos are satisfied. And, until price discovery reemerges (if it does), the algos are all that matter. continued for members… … continue reading →

Retail Sales (Sort of) Flat

July retail sales came in at 0.0%, a goose egg, versus expectations that were generally around 0.1-0.2%. These data aren’t adjusted for inflation, however, so the “real” change was another drop. Markets seem to care at the moment, with ES off nearly 1%.  But, our charts had already called for a reversal yesterday after reaching … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2021

The 531K payrolls beat and Pfizer COVID-19 pill could influence the taper schedule. The 4.9% increase in wages should. Energy and food prices might well fall over the coming months. But, wages are sticky. Whether due to contracts, minimum wage rules, or just market forces, they are very difficult to reduce. While it’s true that … continue reading →

Gold: Anatomy of a Rat’s Nest Chart

Once in a while, charts are so crystal clear that we can see the future as easily as we can reflect on the past. Gold is not one of those charts. The zigs and zags come fast and furious and rarely correlate with anything happening in the real world. Witness the indifference this so-called inflation … continue reading →