The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST: 6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out. EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →
Tag Archives: falling wedge
ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4. It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →
I’ve been quite bearish since going short on April 11 at 1597 [Big Picture: 11:30 update.] Yesterday, though, SPX reached our initial downside target of 1540 and, as expected, paused. As we’ve discussed, this was an important points for bulls to take a stand. It was also the ideal spot from which to launch the … continue reading →
VIX looks to have completed another falling wedge, falling to 13.51 on Sep 14 — versus the Aug 17 low of 13.3 and the Mar 16 low of 13.66. The 5-year red, dashed TL is currently around 13.24, but there is no evidence that the TL will be tested again this go ’round. One note … continue reading →
If you found yourself scratching your head today, you’re not alone. SPX finally shed a couple of points — the first loss in seven forgettable sessions. VIX reacted by selling off by 1.04. Huh? DX followed suit, settling 0.18 after being down as much as .66 from Friday’s high. Come again? I wrote about VIX … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 10:05 AM I’m a bit surprised the Plunge Protection Team didn’t protect 1292 (but I imagine it means a Fed governor or the Bernank himself will be making an appearance sometime this morning.) I had set a mental stop level of 1295 yesterday, given the ongoing weakness in the euro and inability of … continue reading →
I normally construct charts in log scale. In general, I regard it as a more legitimate way of viewing time and price relationships. But, I try to remember to check in on the arithmetic picture from time to time. Here are a few arithmetic charts to consider… … continue reading →
Fridays before a holiday weekend have a tradition of being very, very quiet. Today seems to be no exception. Unless something weird happens, we’re aiming for a close around 1323, up a few points.
UPDATE: May 8, 2012 The past two forecasts are still holding up well. I still believe we’re likely to test the large red rising wedge as detailed below. The completed H&S pattern targets 2446, which the large red RW crosses around May 16. It also permits a wave down that doesn’t overlap with the October … continue reading →
Back on the 18th [see: VIX at a Crossroads] we charted VIX’s future, observing that it had fashioned a perfectly good falling wedge into a downward sloping channel. We talked about how a drop to 16 would be the ideal level for an Inverse H&S pattern to develop. Guess what? It’s interesting that VIX is … continue reading →