Short and sweet this time… Previous bounces off the 10s2s yield curve lows haven’t turned out that well for equities. related posts: Oil & Gas, Inflation and Interest Rates: Delicate Balance or Goal Seeking? Update on Bonds: Apr 27, 2018 Does the Yield Curve Matter? A Closer Look … continue reading →
Tag Archives: bonds
I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012. SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →
A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks. The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500. Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield. As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →
If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.) Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →