Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18.
The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored.
continued for members… (more…)
Lots of targets were tagged yesterday, beginning with SPX which nailed our 50-day moving average target.
There’s a reason, however, that futures are off even more this morning.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s reversal, the 6th session in a row that ES failed to surpass its .886 Fib retracement.
continued for members… (more…)
In a speech that was essentially a mashup of all his other recent speeches, Powell reiterated at Jackson Hole on Friday that the pandemic – not historically dovish monetary policy – caused the recent huge spike in inflation. In fact, the Fed should be congratulated for putting out the inflationary fire that they started.
He did mention by way of a little joke that the Fed’s assessment of inflation being transitory was wrong, but that the Fed had plenty of company. Essentially, no harm, no foul.
Now, the Fed is apparently ready to lower interest rates. This view will ideally be underscored by Friday’s core PCE print. The market expects it and, in fact, needs it. But, anything more than 50 bps could be seen as the Fed panicking and could unravel the current rally as it stumbles merrily along.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are off moderately after weaker than expected housing data and in anticipation of next week’s Jackson Hole Fedspeak.
ES reached our next upside target a little ahead of schedule, and is now backtesting the purple TL from recent lows.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are slightly higher in a week certain to be buffeted by a bevy of important economic data.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are up slightly as the FOMC begins its July meeting. But, it’s a continuation of the consolidation that began last week.
continued for members… (more…)
A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year.
RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 or its .886 at 2364.78. If we extend the dashed red trend line to the right, we get an intersection with the .786 at the end of the year – a very common scenario. While the .786 in December is a logical next target, an equally compelling case can be made for the .886 in September or October.
Don’t look now, but RUT pushed past the red TL we discussed, allowing RUT to tag 2282 (well, 2278) late last week.
continued for members… (more…)
Greetings from Anegada, British Virgin Islands. We continue in vacation mode, with the next post planned for Thursday, May 16.
The markets continue to track our forecast, with breakouts in equities and currencies and a breakdown in VIX. Oil and gas continue to hint at a breakdown, buy this remains a wild card.
continued for members… (more…)
This is the fourth time in a row that ES has pushed back into the rising channel from which it previously broke down. This one is more important, however, as it has the 50-day moving average in its sights.
As we discussed last week, all the stars are aligned should the algos wish to pursue our upside targets.
continued for members… (more…)
