We’ve been bearish on oil for quite a while, shorting it at 75.57 on October 3, 2018 after Jamal Khashoggi was dismembered and at each of the 3 subsequent peaks since then: just before the JCPOA breakup, the Abqaiq attack and the Aramco IPO — which should have been a peak, but resulted in a … continue reading →
Tag Archives: yields
Lots of excitement in the currency markets this morning — particularly the yen. The USDJPY plunged rather decisively to our nearest downside target… …after stories appeared in the financial press that the BoJ was embarking on a buying spree, offering to buy “an unlimited amount of bonds.” Why would they do such a thing? Yields … continue reading →
I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012. SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →
The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets. Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest … continue reading →
A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks. The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500. Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield. As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →