I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012. SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →
Tag Archives: rates
The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets. Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest … continue reading →
A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks. The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500. Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield. As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →