pebblewriter

Tag: crash

  • Inflation Rises

    August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… (more…)

  • Unspinnable

    An extremely disappointing payrolls report put February new hires at 20K.  I had to look twice, certain that a digit had been left out.To make matters worse, hourly earnings spiked 3.4% YoY, far in excess of what all the Goldilocks models suggested. It should be entertaining to see how Kudlow et al. spin this one.

    Meanwhile, our targets are being hit left and right.  ES came within 1.21 (so far) of our next downside target.On the currency front, EURUSD nailed our next downside target……USDJPY plunged right through its nearest support and is closing in on our secondary target……and DXY is again approaching our upside target.CL and RBOB’s selloffs are accelerating after tagging our upside targets.

    S&P futures are currently off about 20 points.  But, our models suggest SPX should tumble a minimum of 35 points before all is said and done.  If that support doesn’t hold, there are potentially very large declines ahead.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on DJIA: Dec 11, 2018

    In our last update on the Dow, we noted that it had not only fallen through an important trend line but its SMA200 as well. From All Good Things on Oct 11:

    DJIA is flirting with breaking below a long-term trend line and SMA200.  A failure here opens the door to 23781, another 6.2% lower.

    Two months after the breakdown, DJIA is indeed flirting with the 2.24 extension at 23781.  Like SPX, it has completed a Head & Shoulders Pattern as well as a Flag Pattern.Also, like SPX, it came up just shy of its .886 Fibonacci retracement yesterday (23881 vs 23781.)

    The big question, then, is whether it’s done or whether it’s simply preparing for a more dramatic plunge.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Yield Curve: An Update

    Short and sweet this time…  Previous bounces off the 10s2s yield curve lows haven’t turned out that well for equities.

    related posts:

    Oil & Gas, Inflation and Interest Rates: Delicate Balance or Goal Seeking?
    Update on Bonds: Apr 27, 2018
    Does the Yield Curve Matter? A Closer Look