NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts.

ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out next week and a likely military escalation in the Middle East, ES will do well to hold its 50-day moving average.

continued for members….

The SMA50 still looks good in the near term.
VIX is vacillating, currently having a hard time pushing above yesterday’s highs. Note that its RSI indicates it could be overbought. The Middle East situation should work to keep it high.
VX futures, however, suggest the worst might be over;

EURUSD is back below its SMA200… …which has allowed DXY to bounce off of its.

GC is taking a breather, while SI has retreated from its Mar 2022 highs. Last, but certainly not least, oil and gas prices remain near their recent highs as the world waits for Iran’s response to the Israeli bombing.

10Y yields remain near recent highs, likely suppressed by flows out of equities into safe haven instruments.

Stay tuned…