MSFT’s Warning

According to Reuters, Microsoft’s Chief Executive Officer, Satya Nadella, and other Microsoft executives used the words “caution” and “cautious” at least six times during yesterday’s call.

The stock, already locked into a falling channel from last November…

…reversed its initial pop and is leading the broader indices lower this morning.  Remember, MSFT is the second largest component of the S&P 500.  Futures are off over 1% as we approach the open.

continued for members

Per our cycle model, ES is slated to tumble as much as 19.5% in the next two weeks. That’s almost 2% per session, a tall order for sure. ES should test its SMA200 this morning, with a drop to 3890 the next support if/when the SMA200 doesn’t hold.

A reminder, this assumes that DJIA can push through its SMA200. It also assumes that VIX can break out of its latest falling channel and make higher highs for a change. Currencies are cooperating to some extent. USDJPY continues to be limited by its SMA20, and EURUSD appears stuck at channel backtest resistance after having completed a nice rising wedge. DXY has managed to hold the same level of support for 8 sessions.

GC’s rising wedge gets more pronounced every day.And, SI shows no signs of breaking out of the falling white channel. In fact, it has now broken down from the small rising white channel and is testing its SMA50. As we pointed out earlier this week, CL and RB both remain stuck at backtest resistance…

…implying that TNX should have no trouble completing its SMA200 backtest very soon.