ES reached our channel top target yesterday – a day later than expected, but it’s reversing all the same.

continued for members…

Each of our equity charts shows prices at the falling channel breaking point.With ES/SPX still well above their SMA200s and 3.618 Fibs, the onus is on the bears to make something happen. The biggest wild card, of course, is the Fed meeting coming up on Jan 31-Feb 1 – a full week away.

Against expectations of a 25 bps hike, a 50 bps hike might upset traders. It’s safe to say that the closer we get to Feb 8, the less the chances of a lower low. But, there are a number of big economic and market mileposts up ahead. Having delivered on both a breakdown of the red TL and a failure to break out of the white channel, VIX is still benefiting the bulls. An IH&S pattern would complete around 21.60.The USDJPY is testing its SMA20 yet again. It has failed to break above it ever since Nov 4. EURUSD remains at the channel backtest. This leaves DXY stuck at key support. CL and RB also remain at overhead resistance – CL at the red TL connecting it to previous highs (part of a falling wedge), and RB at the red channel midline. Still waiting for that TNX SMA200 backtest…GLTA