Q4 Adv. GDP came in at +2.9%, slightly above +2.6% consensus. But, durable goods orders spiked to +5.6% versus +2.9% consensus and -1.7% prior.

It’s a print that might be expected to embolden FOMC hawks in their deliberations next week. In fact, the market sold off — for all of 5 minutes. ES is now back to overnight highs after yesterday’s spasmodic BTFD ricochet off the 200-day moving average.What gives?

continued for members…

Part of the issue is that transportation made up a huge share of the print.  It was up a whopping 115% from November and 52% from Q4 2022. Ex-transportation, GDP sank 0.1%.

The other element is, of course, that we have a FOMC meeting next week. And, it’s been very rare, lately, to see a sell-off in the days leading up to an FOMC meeting – even one where an unpleasant outcome is assumed.

The bigger picture shows ES closing in on the .707 Fib – a common rebound point after major lows this past year. No surprise, but VIX is threatening lower lows.Though currencies are essentially unchanged from yesterday.

Oil and gas are bouncing, but not to higher highs.

This leaves TNX within striking range of the rising SMA200. New home sales will be released at 10am ET.