Monday Morning Meltup

Futures are continuing their meltup in the pre-market on a 4% bounce in crude oil and the usual overnight slump in VIX.

continued for members

This jeopardizes but doesn’t rule out the imminent SMA200 tag we’ve envisioned for SPX/ES. VIX’s overnight action tells the continuing story of careful algo management.  Friday’s sharp drop at least postponed the bullish 10/20 cross, and VIX is obviously back in the falling white channel. As mentioned above, oil is up sharply this morning on no particular news. Unless it tops the SMA10, this is merely a backtest.

It has been boosted by a pretty strong reversal by DXY after reaching our next upside target on Friday. Gold and silver are likewise doing nicely, up about 2% on the day.  GC has pushed up through its SMA20 to test its SMA100. Remember, a push through the SMA200 is the more critical test.SI is edging above its SMA10. The bond market is pretty quiet, with 10Y yields very slightly higher. And, BTC is still rising nicely after pushing back through its SMA200s. It faces resistance at its .618 Fib at 51,030.

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In the past few minutes, FDA announced it has officially approved the Pfizer vaccine and PMI survey data came in well below estimates.

SPX has popped up to test its .886 as VIX tests its SMA50 – the last remaining SMA support – and postpones the 10/20 cross again.