Yesterday’s meltup, like most Mondays, had a very clear objective: reach new highs and protect them at all costs. It’s also a pattern typical of most weeks during which a Fed meeting (e.g. Jackson Hole) is scheduled.

The mechanics of achieving this objective haven’t changed in the past 10 years: crush volatility, ramp oil futures, devalue the yen, etc. The ease and frequency with which they’re employed, however, is nothing short of astonishing.

This time, they didn’t even wait until ES had reached its 50-DMA. It makes you wonder: what are they so afraid of? Is the market otherwise so fragile that it needs constant manipulation in order not to crash?

continued for members…The big picture shows the window is closing for a 3.618 backtest within the bounds of the rising purple channels for both ES and SPX.

The reason ES didn’t even reach its SMA50 on Aug 19, of course, was because VIX was about to experience a bullish (bearish for stocks) 10/20 cross and had clearly broken out of its falling white channel.

Today, with VIX haven been crushed by 31% in the past two sessions, a 10/20 cross is less of a threat.If it can push back up through all those SMAs, then the bear case can be taken seriously again.

Likewise, were CL to backtest the red TL and reverse back below its SMA10, the bulls would lose some of their considerable mojo. And although USDJPY continues to waver, its upcoming dip will likely be to strong support at the intersection of the broken channel top (a backtest) and the emerging SMA200. Likewise, EURUSD is nearing a backtest target……which, if it holds, would result in more DXY weakness – a condition the algos seem to like these days (especially when it’s accompanied by a rally in CL.) Last, this is an important day for gold and silver. GC is nudging up against its SMA200……after making a bid to re-enter the rising channel it broke down from on Aug 9.If it can push above the SMA200, it would be bullish, opening up the yellow target (neckline) at 1893.

Silver has fared better than GC of late, managing to hold its rising white channel. Its medium-term prospects have been unclear, but a technical signal suggests the bounce might just hold.The daily RSI is slipping up past the white TL connecting recent highs. It’s not guaranteed to hold, but it’s another reason to believe it might.

more later…