Futures just backtested the 10-day moving average and our analog trendline, leaving the door open for a pullback – as long as VIX doesn’t get clobbered again.

continued for members…

The bigger picture shows ES/SPX are still backtesting channel midlines…

…with the potential to overshoot on the next leg down… …and the potential to overshoot even more on the falling leg after that. The importance of VIX breaking out above its fan line and completing that IH&S can’t be overstated. The currency picture is pretty quiet again this morning. Both USDJPY and EURUSD are slipping slightly, putting DXY that much closer to our 106.27-106.72 target range. Gold and silver are also off modestly.

And, BTC is again cozying up to its SMA10.CL and RB recovered much of their losses late yesterday, putting CL back above its SMA100 but still below trend and RB bouncing on its .236 channel line and crawling back above its SMA50. The net effect on bonds: a little more off the top – which, since it’s happening for a good reason (less inflation pressure) jibes with steady markets – for now. Meanwhile, anyone notice that DBA – the ag commodites ETF – has broken down below trend?

GLTA