WTI spent May 2020 through Feb 2022 in a fairly well-defined channel (below, in white) as it recovered from its pandemic lows. It broke out on Mar 1, however, topping 100 and taking only 5 sessions to reach our 130 target which wasn’t schedule to happen until December.
Since then, it’s seen a series of fits and starts, holding an internal trend line and flirting with reentering the white channel. It’s flirting no more. Against the backdrop of a gas tax holiday and significant demand destruction, it has dropped through the channel top and the 100-day moving average.
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