Futures are off sharply this morning, reflecting the lack of support behind the runup to the last two options expirations.

continued for members…The big picture for equities shows ES/SPX in a position to backtest their falling purple channels, likely around the 3.618 extensions at SPX 3956 and ES 3997.

Notably, VIX has finally broken out of its falling red channel and back into the rising white channel.

Our analog, which performed admirably through June 17, is either off the rails or has morphed into a different version of its former self.

SPX’s lows came a month sooner and 6% higher than the analog originally suggested.  Last week’s highs were also a month sooner and 6% higher than expected. Since I’m not a fan of coincidences, I am looking for some meaning behind the shift.  Ideally, the analog would still be operational, just shifted.

Meanwhile, currencies are now following through with what the analog promised. USDJPY is scrambling higher to try to preserve NKD’s breakout.

While EURUSD is getting the lower leg that should never have been interrupted in the first place. The DXY should have no trouble now reaching our 110-111 target.Gold and silver have resumed their slumps… …and BTC is back to the bottom of the flag pattern which should soon fail.Likewise, CL and RB are now free to continue their declines – a reflection of the growing recession risk as well as the fed’s/administration’s desire to tamp down inflation before that recession hits the headlines. Ironically, TNX popped even as RB slumped – setting up a stretching of the relationship between the two that should resolve even more violently than before – likely with a backtest of the SMa200 as it emerges from the falling yellow channel in September.This has given the 2s10s a shot in the arm, rebounding sharply – a negative for stocks, especially if the inversion should end. Stay tuned…