ORIGINAL POST: We can’t call the corrective wave over just yet. There’s still potential to one of those fibs or channels we discussed yesterday before the 3rd wave down gets going. But, RSI is still showing no breakout potential on any time frame. A 50 – 88.6% retracement is considered “normal” for 2nd waves. This … continue reading →
Tag Archives: butterfly
Gold nailed our September 6 forecast last week [see: Sep 6 Update on Gold], fulfilling both the Bat Pattern and Butterfly Pattern objectives in the exact time frame we expected — the confluence of the ECB, GCC and FOMC decisions. Here’s the chart posted on the 6th: Since reaching the .886/1.618, prices have stalled out … continue reading →
Gold continues to rise on expectations of quantitative easing — whether from the ECB or the Fed. In our last update [see: August 22 Update on Gold] prices had reached our August 15 target of 1655 and had broken out of the descending triangle we’d identified. Our target at the time was 1762, which is … continue reading →
Bat Patterns are one of the more common harmonic patterns. They are similar to Gartley Patterns, except that the AB retracement can be anywhere less than the Fibonacci .618 of the XA leg and the AD leg completes at the .886. Because the AB leg can be anything < .618, we have to be a … continue reading →
Periodically, I like to go through and chart the various harmonic scenarios for both the upside and downside. It helps to pass the time while sitting and staring at the computer monitor, watching our forecast play out (so far, so good.) It’s also helpful in generating a set of potential outcomes for the market over … continue reading →
Earlier today [see: Close but no Cigarro], I opined as to how SPX wasn’t done back testing its IH&S because — among other reasons — VIX hadn’t even reached, let alone reacted off our target of 18.31 (the solid red line.) Never mind the “reached” part. VIX nailed our June 12 forecast right at the … continue reading →
GC soared over $1200/oz since losing 30% in sympathy to the global market meltdown in 2008. Most of that rise took place in an acceleration channel. In the past year, however, the most prominent pattern has been the descending triangle (purple, dashed.) Continued… … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 4:30 AM The analog I posted on April 9 [see: New Analog I’m Watching] accurately forecast the move from 1422 to 1357, back up to 1415, then down to 1292. As detailed in the last post [see: Why Bother], merely selling short SPX at the tops and buying in at the bottoms we … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:45 PM So far, SPX has obliged us by tagging every one of our targets. The 1310 Fibonacci .707 retrace [see below] of the 2007-2009 collapse is our current intra-day low, and we’re presently sitting at the 1.272 target of the Butterfly incorporated into the analog I first posted on April 9 [see: New … continue reading →
UPDATE: 10:30 AM Last night’s call on the dollar was timely. Check out the candle on the daily chart — the completion of both a Bat and Butterfly pattern. EURUSD also seems to have put in a bottom, though as mentioned earlier it’s going to take ein Akt des Bundestages (literally) to save the euro … continue reading →