It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time:

“TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.”

After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess up to the coming rise in CPI and, therefore interest rates, in his speech at Jackson Hole (1005 ET.)

As we discussed a few days ago [see: Interesting Goings On in Currencies] the cross currents in rates and currencies are problematic for the market. We saw ample evidence yesterday when futures gave up a strong opening  – breaking out of a well-formed channel only to close deep in the red.

continued for members…

Inflation would be problematic enough considering the base effect in oil/gas prices – but the channel breakouts exacerbated the problem.

Currencies haven’t been much help lately, with the euro and the yen both spent.

Stay tuned…