ES rallied 7.3% off the Oct 13 lows to tag our target at the white channel midline – also the 20% correction mark.

This is the same target we added on Oct 14 [see: It Wasn’t Oversold] as it’s an important line in the sand.

continued for members…

Simply put, remaining below the midline keeps a near-term plunge alive. Rising above it greatly increases the odds that the bulls will escape 2022 without another big decline.

Note that ES is only a day away from a bullish 10/20 cross – if it doesn’t reverse today. VX hasn’t broken down – at least yet.It has retreated to the white channel .236 line after being rebuffed at the midline. Ordinarily, we’d see a rebound here. However, this channel has already been mangled by the August smackdown, so we can’t put too much stock in a reversal here.Unfortunately, currencies aren’t offering much guidance as they are also at a potential pivot point. USDJPY reversed after reaching 151.93, but so far it has held its 1998 highs.

EURUSD has reached its SMA50 which has been a reliable reversal point for the past year. And, DXY is hinting at a breakdown but is still north of its 1.618 with its SMA50 coming up fast. GC and SI are mixed but relatively quiet. And, BTC is off a smidge.CL and RB are both marginally lower… …with little effect on the 10Y, which looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.Stay tuned…