Our yield curve model sounded the alarm on Friday. But, by the end of the day, it had backed off and cooler heads prevailed.
It’s important to recognize, however, that it remains on the bubble, with only a few basis points standing between a rally and another leg down. From a fundamental standpoint, there seems little doubt that the odds of a recession are on the rise.
continued for members…
The 2Y’s plunge was arrested, and the 10Y’s new lows were erased. For now, at least.
It’s not surprising, then, that ES’ rising channel reflected a temporary breakdown. 
It still faces the problem of what to do re the IH&S patterns and the neckline at 4186ish.
Note that DJIA couldn’t quite make it above the SMA200. It will be a nice positive for stocks assuming the futures can hold their current gains.
VX is coiling, also suggesting that a breakout or breakdown is just ahead.
VIX’s RSI points to the same conclusion.
Currencies are all in for stocks this morning, with DXY backing off and GC getting hammered. 
CL and RB have pushed slightly above their SMA10s this morning, just enough to push TNX up to 3.5%.
But, the bond market is responding more to the various stick saves going on around the world than anything else. If you didn’t know any better, you’d think the banking crisis was over.
More accurately, we’ve entered a new phase of can kicking where the rules are changed to present a less scary scenario than reality would otherwise suggest.
GLTA.