Iran has reportedly announced that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sending the price of oil tumbling by over 10%…

… and SPX futures sharply higher.

At 7143, however, ES has run into the first of three consecutively higher Fibonacci extensions: the 3.618 of the COVID crash.

The others are the 2.24 of the 2022 decline at 7186 and the 1.618 of the 2025 tariff correction at 7272.

The highest level of overhead resistance, therefore, is only 1.8% above the current price.  Given that we still face an inflationary oil shock that has dashed expectations of a rate cut in 2026, there is still plenty of risk for a relatively meager upside.

SPX has already topped its equivalent Fib targets, so its overhead resistance is less well defined. Note, however, that it is not only overbought but that its RSI has run into a TL of resistance (below, in yellow) from July 2024.

VX is still off its recent lows and remains above its SMA200…

…but VIX itself has sunk below its SMA200 – at least for the moment. Today marks the third session in a row where it has straddled this important support, leaving us unconvinced that this morning’s rally has staying power.

The factor, of course, is Trump’s social media post that the US blockade is still in force.